PAGASA projects drought across Davao Region, including Davao City, by March 2027

Every province in the Davao Region, including Davao City, could be in meteorological drought by the end of March 2027, according to a projection from the state weather bureau PAGASA reported by Mindanao Times. Rainfall is forecast to remain below normal over the next six months.

Engr. Bema C. Tajones, Weather Specialist I of the Mindanao PAGASA Regional Services Division, presented the outlook at the 11th DCCCII General Membership Meeting for 2026 on Friday, Nov. 13, at Grand Men Seng Hotel.

For November, the region is generally expected to get below-normal to near-normal rainfall. Tajones explained that below normal means 41 to 80 percent of usual rainfall. Davao City and Davao del Norte are forecast to receive near-normal rain, or 80 to 120 percent of normal, but she said there remains up to a 55 percent chance that both areas will fall below normal.

The outlook worsens in the coming months. December is forecast to be below normal, with up to a 75 percent probability of way-below-normal conditions, and January is expected to stay below normal. February 2027 is projected to bring way-below-normal rainfall with no probability of improvement, a pattern expected to continue into March and April.

PAGASA classifies conditions based on rainfall alone, not on effects on farms or land. Dry conditions refer to two straight months of below-normal rain. A dry spell is three straight months of below-normal rain or two months of way-below-normal rain. Drought is three straight months of way-below-normal rain or five months of below-normal rain.

Under the projection, Davao del Sur and Davao Occidental may already be in a dry spell by the end of November and in drought by the end of December. Davao Oriental is expected to follow, reaching drought by the end of February. Davao City and Davao del Norte may see dry conditions by the end of January and a dry spell by the end of February, along with Davao de Oro. By the end of March, the entire region is forecast to be in drought, continuing through April.

Tajones urged communities to "monitor, prepare, and adapt," and encouraged the use of water-efficient technologies and energy-efficient equipment. She also advised adjusting work schedules to reduce workers' exposure to heat, particularly between 10 a.m. and 3 p.m. PAGASA publishes daily heat index readings and forecasts on its website to help with planning.