PAGASA warns drought may worsen as very strong El Niño heads for year-end peak

Dry conditions across the Philippines are expected to worsen in the coming weeks, with a very strong El Niño forecast to peak by the end of 2026 and persist until the first half of 2027, according to the state weather bureau PAGASA, Edge Davao reported.

In an advisory dated November 4, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration said most parts of the country are likely to get below-normal to way-below-normal rainfall this month. That raises the risk of drought and dry spells in several provinces.

PAGASA's latest assessment found that in October, five provinces were already under meteorological drought, 11 were experiencing a dry spell and 10 more had dry conditions. The agency said more provinces could fall under drought or dry spell conditions toward the end of November. The advisory did not specify which provinces are affected.

The bureau also expects warmer-than-average temperatures in most areas. It said this could put more strain on water supplies and farming.

El Niño, a climate pattern now present in the tropical Pacific, generally reduces rainfall in the Philippines and raises the chance of long dry periods. PAGASA noted that heavy rain can still happen during an El Niño. Tropical cyclones and other rain-bearing weather systems may bring heavy downpours to some areas.

With dry weather expected to continue for months, PAGASA called on the public and government agencies to step up preparations. It urged people to save water and asked for better management of available water resources.

The agency named water utilities, local government units and farming communities as among the sectors that should prepare for possible supply problems and other drought-related effects. It also encouraged concerned sectors to put in place interventions and mitigation measures to deal with prolonged below-normal rainfall.